Can you believe it?
Like many people in Information Retrieval related fields I have been keeping a close eye on FiveThirtyEight.com. The owner has put together a fairly sophisticated and so far accurate model of electoral behavior based on past trends, polling data, and some other demographic and statistical information. Over the past month since Palin was allowed to actually speak to the press the McCain campaign has been floundering. He now give Obama a 90.9% chance of winning which I think maybe a bit conservative since if you go state by state and you pick only states where Obama’s lead is so commanding he has over an 85% chance of winning the state, he already has enough electoral votes to win. Amazingly this does not include a single state the press is calling a battleground. From other news, namely how McCain has not even thought about transition yet while Obama is already putting together possible names for cabinet officials, I think McCain has given up. Further supporting that he told a rally in Minnesota today to not be afraid of an Obama presidency and that Obama is a good and kind man. This is quite the reversal from the “paling around with terrorists” lies being spouted by the McCain campaign in past weeks. My two big concerns now are getting a Dem supermajority in the Senate and Obama winning enough of the populat vote to have a “mandate”.
BTW. This is my hundredth post!
Filed under: General on October 10th, 2008
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